08/02/2026
Resilience in a Polycrisis – Bob Worcester, February 2026
“May you live in interesting times” is thought to be an ancient curse. Few would doubt that we are living in “interesting times.” Most would say that we are living on the cusp of a crisis, some would say we are in the midst of several. Officially the term “polycrisis” refers not just to a number of concurrent crises but to a situation where they also interact and exacerbate each other rather than merely compound the difficulties. We can easily identify and link our personal stressors (grocery bills) with local organizations (distribution problems) and geo- political factors (trade wars.) Understanding the complexities of the current situation is a first step toward dealing realistically and effectively with them. “Resilience” is a term used to describe both personal qualities, organizational qualities and the nature of ecological systems. IF we can look at the personal, local and global aspects of a polycrisis, we can also look at the resilience of individuals, local groups and global institutions.
Resilience can be seen a process that goes through stages. Those stages are: growth, maturation, decline and renewal. This idea was first applied to forest ecology (Holling, 2002) but has since found applications in many different areas of natural, economic and social systems. It implies more than a simple “boom and bust” description of growth and decay. Resiliency requires particular characteristics that allow for the reorganization and renewal of a failing system so that the growth and maturation phases continue rather than decline leading to permanent collapse and destruction or extinction.
Just as a polycrisis involves interacting parts so can a resilience cycle involve immediate personal qualities interacting with local communities and global institutions over time. An example would be to see how individuals change vacation plans which effect airline schedules leading to changes in geo-political patterns of travel. Personal decisions to “buy local” effects the distribution networks of grocery chains leading to capital allocation changes in international markets. Conversely, a global boycott of Kentucky bourbon may lead to a change in the personal retirement plans of a Kentucky senator. Interactions go both ways. One implication of a polycrisis is that there may be no quick fix to a problem when a web of relationships is involved. Buying an air conditioner to deal with a heat wave creates demands on electrical systems that may exacerbate global temperatures. Closing breweries in Kentucky may exacerbate the political dynamics that intensify a trade war.
Personal Resiliency -
There are psychological factors that contribute to the resiliency of individuals facing stressful situations. A quick summary of 5 Cs:
Calm - emotional modulation allows for better decision-making – breath
Clear - communication allows for a more realistic assessment of a crisis
Connected - being part of a network can be critical to crisis management
Competent – experience and skill are assets in a crisis.
Courageous (confident) – A positive attitude and a sense of agency helps
This is not an exhaustive list and there is much more that can and has been said about personal resilience.
Organizational Resilience -
Individuals exist in a network of social relationships that come into play during a polycrisis. When social, economic or natural systems are subjected to pressure some qualities stand out:
1. Redundancy - systems with single points of failure are vulnerable in a crisis and more so in a polycrisis. Fail-safe systems are built into airplanes, nuclear reactors and computers for a reason; things fall apart often at the worst possible time. Having a backup is essential.
2. Diversity – different perspectives and approaches to a problem are more likely to resolve difficult situations than single-minded ones.
3. Adaptability – the ability to learn from the past, modify behaviors amid changing conditions,
4. Modularity – independent, interconnected components can help limit damage from the failure in one component spreading throughout the system
5. Feedback loops – systems which self-monitor to detect problems at early stages and are alert for changing conditions are better able to respond and adapt to those changing conditions.
6. Margins of Error - systems operating at 100% efficiency may not have enough backup in the system to absorb sudden changes in circumstances. Excess capacity is useful in a crisis.
7. Cohesion – strong interconnections, trust and familiarity allow for the strength in some areas to compensate for weaknesses in other areas of the system while reorganization is in play.
Other considerations are:
Social capital - helps coordination, trust, and morale.
Human capital - helps problem-solving
Natural capital - helps sustenance with land, water and air
Technology - can improve efficiency, productivity, speed
Institutional/ organizational structure - helps division and utilization of resources.
Consider how would these qualities and considerations might apply to a rock band. a bank or an NGO ?
Rock Band - five members can each play each other's instruments, sing a range of songs, follow feedback from fans and critics to balance old/new material, arrange days off during tours that can be skipped to make up time. They keep some equipment and cash in reserve and debrief each concert or tour. Use current technologies.
Bank - a bank can have a wide range of services, keep extra cash reserves, have well trained staff who can fill in for each other, have connections with community groups (teams), experiment with new technologies (ATMs) but keep older ones handy (calculators), have spare employees to fill in on busy days and get feedback from customers and contacts to identify slip ups and inefficiencies.
NGO – Encourages a range of interests: climate, food security, biodiversity and conservation. Encourages a variety of members, old, young, nerds, activists with a range of experience and skill. Experiments with new media and technology but preserves mail, phone lists and flyers. Engages in activities that builds trust and a sense of community internally while building a network of relationships externally. Encourages DIY and McGivering. Rotates key positions in the group. Maintains connections with local, national and international groups working in its area. Budgets for unforeseen emergencies.
A Hockey Team ?
A Government ?
Conclusion:
We seem to be in the midst of overlapping crises in the environment, the economy and in the “old world order.” The consequences of this “polycrisis” can be seen in personal relationships, social organization and geo-political dynamics. There are many interpretations of the problems and many suggestions for solutions to those problems. We live in “interesting times.” The response to a crisis can be understood as process of growth, maturation, decline and renewal. The renewal phase is not guaranteed and requires “resilience” which is enhanced by factors which either contribute to a renewal of the process or to the collapse and termination of the process. These include the personal qualities of calm, clarity, connection, competence and confidence. Systemic factors include adaptability, redundancy, modularity, diversity, robustness, learning capacity, cohesion and connection. These qualities can be acquired and distinguish individuals and organizations which can respond to a crisis with adaptations that do not change their essential nature. The survival of a system cannot be guaranteed but the chances for survival can be enhanced from consideration and incorporation of these qualities.