16/06/2026
🌎 EL NIÑO HAS OFFICIALLY RETURNED
Global climate monitoring agencies have officially confirmed the return of El Niño after the phenomenon developed during the past month in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
El Niño is a natural climate pattern that can influence weather across much of the globe, including Southern Africa. While every El Niño event is different, South Africa's summer rainfall regions often experience an increased risk of:
☀️ Hotter-than-normal temperatures
🌧️ Below-normal summer rainfall
🚜 Agricultural drought conditions
💧 Reduced water availability and dam inflows
🔥 Increased veld fire danger
⚡ More frequent and intense heatwaves
It is important to remember that El Niño does not mean drought is guaranteed. Local weather systems can still produce heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms, even during El Niño years.
Forecast models suggest this El Niño may strengthen further during the coming months, making the 2026/27 summer season one to watch closely.
South African Impacts
• The strongest influence is usually felt from spring into summer (September–March).
• The summer rainfall regions of the Free State, North West, Gauteng, Limpopo, Mpumalanga and parts of KwaZulu-Natal are typically most vulnerable to below-normal rainfall.
• Heatwaves often become more frequent and more severe.
• Agriculture, especially maize production, can be negatively affected if rainfall deficits persist.
• Water restrictions become more likely if dam levels begin declining significantly.
• Veld fire risk usually increases due to hotter, drier vegetation conditions.
Storm Report SA will continue monitoring developments and provide updates as new seasonal forecasts become available.
